calls settled
28
Break-even is the win rate these prices require just to stand still. Winning 85.7% of the time against a 80.8% requirement is +4.9 points ahead — that gap is the whole business.
best $1,141.86 · worst $926.64 · fees paid $38.96
Nothing open. Normal — calls last about fifteen minutes and the bot passes on most contracts.
| closed | result | paid | account | side | price | btc vs target | min left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Aug 11:45am | won | +23.87 | $1,103.08 | NO | 0.81 | -99 | 10 |
| 25 Aug 9:45am | won | +13.63 | $1,079.21 | YES | 0.88 | +190 | 10 |
| 25 Aug 6:00am | won | +21.60 | $1,065.58 | YES | 0.82 | +136 | 10 |
| 25 Aug 5:15am | won | +18.39 | $1,043.98 | NO | 0.84 | -179 | 10 |
| 25 Aug 4:45am | LOST | -116.27 | $1,025.59 | YES | 0.74 | +99 | 11 |
| 25 Aug 4:00am | won | +11.77 | $1,141.86 | YES | 0.90 | +191 | 12 |
| 25 Aug 3:00am | won | +29.35 | $1,130.09 | NO | 0.78 | -152 | 12 |
| 25 Aug 2:15am | won | +20.83 | $1,100.74 | NO | 0.83 | -128 | 12 |
| 25 Aug 2:00am | won | +19.02 | $1,079.91 | NO | 0.84 | -181 | 11 |
| 25 Aug 1:30am | won | +25.99 | $1,060.89 | YES | 0.79 | +118 | 12 |
| 25 Aug 12:15am | won | +31.68 | $1,034.90 | YES | 0.75 | +134 | 12 |
| 24 Aug 10:45pm | won | +32.34 | $1,003.22 | YES | 0.74 | +115 | 10 |
| 24 Aug 10:15pm | won | +22.38 | $970.88 | YES | 0.80 | +147 | 10 |
| 24 Aug 8:45pm | won | +21.86 | $948.50 | YES | 0.80 | +172 | 11 |
| 24 Aug 6:15pm | LOST | -104.65 | $926.64 | YES | 0.79 | +194 | 10 |
| 24 Aug 5:30pm | won | +16.83 | $1,031.29 | NO | 0.85 | -183 | 10 |
| 24 Aug 12:30pm | won | +16.56 | $1,014.46 | NO | 0.85 | -339 | 11 |
| 24 Aug 11:15am | won | +28.97 | $997.90 | YES | 0.76 | +139 | 11 |
| 24 Aug 10:15am | LOST | -108.67 | $968.93 | NO | 0.88 | -421 | 12 |
| 24 Aug 7:15am | won | +24.85 | $1,077.60 | YES | 0.80 | +68 | 14 |
| 24 Aug 6:45am | won | +32.23 | $1,052.75 | NO | 0.75 | -39 | 15 |
| 24 Aug 6:00am | won | +17.98 | $1,020.52 | YES | 0.84 | +47 | 15 |
| 24 Aug 2:15am | won | +15.10 | $1,002.54 | YES | 0.86 | -2 | 14 |
| 24 Aug 1:00am | LOST | -112.03 | $987.44 | YES | 0.73 | -17 | 15 |
| 24 Aug 12:00am | won | +15.21 | $1,099.47 | YES | 0.87 | +54 | 14 |
| 23 Aug 11:45pm | won | +34.96 | $1,084.26 | NO | 0.74 | -2 | 14 |
| 23 Aug 9:30pm | won | +24.19 | $1,049.30 | YES | 0.80 | +60 | 14 |
| 23 Aug 9:15pm | won | +25.11 | $1,025.11 | YES | 0.79 | +42 | 14 |
"BTC vs target" is how many dollars above (+) or below (−) the target BTC sat when the call was made. That, the minutes left, and how fast BTC had been moving are the whole basis of every call — so a loss with a small gap and plenty of time is the bot being unlucky, and one with a big gap is it being wrong.
Over 63 days of Kalshi history the shipped rule made 272 trades, won 89.3% of them against an 81.3% break-even, and returned +10.35% per dollar staked after fees. Its worst drawdown was 29%.
28 of the roughly 100 settled calls needed before the live win rate means much. Two or three losses in the first dozen is ordinary; four or more in twenty would say the model is wrong.
Contracts looked at: 209 · settled and learned from: 208 · retired under an older rule: 10